Are Russians Evil - Russian President Vladimir Putin raises his hands during a press conference in Moscow, Russia, February 7, 2022 [Thibault Camus/Pool via Reuters/File Photo]
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth week, we keep hearing words like "evil," "uncoordinated," and "unstable" being used to describe Vladimir Putin. Such labeling is nothing new in real politics. It's a ubiquitous rivalry tactic in international politics—to demonize, portray, and demoralize political opponents while placating those on your ideological side. After all, who wants to join the side of the fool?
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Whether describing Saddam Hussein as a "madman", Gaddafi as a "lunatic" or Putin as a "megalomaniac", such caricatures serve broad political purposes by simplifying any conflict between "good" and "bad".
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The Israeli government often engages in such framing to legitimize the Palestinians—even questioning their intelligence, repeating ad nauseum the trope that they "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Similarly, advocates of India's occupation, military and colonial rule of Kashmir have branded Kashmiris as "terrorist", "separatist" or "anti-national" for demanding the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Such a formulation is now being used strategically to explain Russia's invasion of Ukraine—a rhetorical construct that facilitates the obfuscation of war.
Of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is monstrous. As morally repugnant as the war crimes in Syria, the brutal dispossession of the Palestinians or the military occupation of Kashmir. Yet simplistic structures that see Putin as a "madman" without a purpose hinder our ability to see the bigger picture and do something to prevent further violence.
In other words, now that the war is here, I should ignore all attempts to frame it as just a show between "good" and "evil" and focus on finding steps that can be taken, not just to stop it, but also prevent it from sparking outbreaks in other parts of the world - and possibly starting another world war.
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Putin's invasion of Ukraine—regardless of its logic or purpose—will inevitably affect three issues: the war in Syria, the Iran nuclear deal, and the US-China rivalry.
First, a Russian invasion of Ukraine will have ramifications for Syria. The impact of sanctions on its economy may cause Russia to withdraw money and military forces from Syria. An isolated Putin may also decide to redouble his efforts to turn Syria into a satellite country similar to Belarus. In either case, the US can respond by starting to pour resources into the Syrian resistance.
The Syrian opposition has been busy reviving its decade-long campaign against al-Assad for some time. In early February, for example, they gathered at a major conference in Doha, Qatar, and vowed to "come together." After Russia's invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, Putin's move was quickly condemned. On the other hand, Al-Assad is said to have sent more fighters to Ukraine to help the military intervention in Russia. In short, there are many reasons to suspect that the events in Ukraine could spark a dormant conflict in Syria.
Therefore, while the world watches developments in Ukraine, it must also keep an eye on Syria – to ensure that the war in Europe does not translate into more problems for the Syrian people and greater uncertainty in the Middle East.
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Second, Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered negotiations for a new nuclear deal between the West and Iran. US President Biden is now desperate to get ahead of a new deal with Iran, curtail its nuclear program and, most importantly, get Iranian oil back on the market amid an energy crisis exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine.
A few days ago, the future of the deal was in serious jeopardy after it was reported that Russia had said it would scrap any deal that did not include a guarantee that Western sanctions against Russia in Ukraine would not hinder future negotiations with Iran.
However, on March 15, Moscow announced that it had received a written guarantee from Washington, indicating that the deal would in fact be finalized soon. Iran, for its part, said it was acting as a "strong and independent party" in the negotiations and had Russia's full support. While this is a promising development for the future of the region, it is uncertain whether an isolated, sanctions-crippled Russia will allow the deal to be implemented and allow Iranian oil to re-enter world markets. The world should be watching Iran closely, as if a Russian invasion of Ukraine were to lead to the destruction of the nuclear deal, it would mean uncertainty and further conflict in the Persian Gulf and the region as a whole.
Third, Russia's war in Ukraine is likely to have a major impact on the US-China rivalry. China now appears well-positioned to benefit in many ways from Russian aggression in Ukraine, which could cause the United States to take a more aggressive stance toward its rival.
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Indeed, Beijing can now not only provide Russia with economic innovation, thereby making Moscow more dependent on itself, but it can also take advantage of new movements that put the United States on the back foot to pursue its interests elsewhere. For example, some analysts have expressed concern that China will act unilaterally towards Taiwan after seeing "the West's soft response to Ukraine". Although a Taiwan-like invasion of Ukraine is unlikely for a variety of reasons, China may take a more aggressive approach in other areas if the United States continues to blame China for Russia's actions.
China's encouragement and the US response to it could also lead to further escalation in the Indo-Pacific region. The US has long used its ally India as a strategic shield against China, and any new global power play involving China, Russia and the US could lead to more conflicts in hot spots in the region such as Kashmir. India's attempt to resist a tie-up with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine has already disrupted the Quadripartite Security Dialogue (QSD). The United States and other parties to the dialogue (Australia and Japan) may now demand that India take a tougher stance, if not against Russia, then at least against China. All of this can increase tensions in the region and lead to violence.
Overall, there are signs that Russia's war in Ukraine could increase tensions in various conflict zones, fuel new conflicts, and that the entire planet is moving toward more violence.
Therefore, now is not the time to complain about how "crazy" Putin is or how "irrational" his actions in Ukraine are. This is not the time to invest in narratives that firmly label one side as "good" and the other as "bad." It is time to focus on scaling up, strengthening confidence-building mechanisms, investing in peace and working together to find global strength with the help and guidance of multilateral organizations. Change can be fatal for all of us.
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
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